The Cloud Chamber is that school experiment where you observe the path of charged particles, like cosmic rays and electrons, through a supersaturated gas. This is a metaphor for tracking our industry situation; however, that trace only shows where the particle has been. The Cloud Chamber is like tracking in the open to see things that deviate from normal. Alternatively, what’s there and what isn’t?
Our new-normal in satellite communications is dominated by businesses that are flat or in decline although some new ventures show substantial gain. We know that the space environment has not changed since the 1950s and getting to space relies on the principles of rocketry and aerospace systems. Daily, we read about the current industry state in publications and industry reports, some of which is darn alarming. But where is this taking us?
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The Blue Marble. Taken by the crew of Apollo 17 in 1972 at a distance of 29,000 km. above the planet. (NASA/Apollo 17 crew).
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Fiction writers tell us what the future might look like. HG Wells saw conflict with aliens in War of the Worlds or how civilization could nearly destroy itself with atomic weapons in the 1936 movie, Things to Come. Our future was presented in spectacular form in 2001: A Space Odyssey (released in 1968) or Star Wars – Episode IV (the original Lucasfilm from 1977). They fantasize about technologies we don’t understand (think time travel and teleportation). But Star Trek communicators are here, and phaser weapons are being developed.
Recall the poem by John Gillespie Magee that was spoken by Michael Collins on the Gemini 10 mission in 1966, “Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of Earth . . . Put out my hand and touched the face of God.” It must have inspired current and future astronauts, including a couple of rather wealthy individuals.
I think of the Cloud Chamber as either science fiction or a real-world way to interpret invisible phenomena. Consider this question, “To what extent can spacecraft continue to be launched and operated using non-government funding?” NASA’s US$ 200 Billion Space Shuttle program began in 1972 intending to greatly reduce the cost of getting to space. Supporters said that this would permit any organization to conceive and conduct its own space program or business. Subsequent events proved otherwise, because the Challenger disaster of January 28, 1986, exposed the risk to the lives of astronauts. One report asked, “Is this risk justified to put TV satellites in orbit?” US policy after that restricted the Shuttle to NASA and other government-sponsored activities such as the Space Station.
From there, the commercial side of space, including a burgeoning satellite communications industry, resorted to expendable rockets. Thus, SpaceX was born in 2002 and achieved much of what the Space Shuttle promised. This is commercial space; they and others innovate to offer new services only available from space (emphasis added).
The growth in the current field is with LEO broadband constellations and Direct-to-Device prospects. The former is overwhelming earlier GEO-based broadband offerings – the newcomer has demonstrated technical superiority for mainstream users. To continue to dominate, it must satisfy the following three: superior performance, time-to-market, and low cost. They must do this not based on potential but as the best alternative in the face of competition. DIRECTV achieved eminence in 10 years and performed well for nearly 30. Satellite radio to vehicles is effective on a smaller scale, and I am a devoted user. DIRECTV’s service continues to be excellent, even in the face of rain fade which they now overcome through near-seamless transfer to Internet streaming (which either could be terrestrial or satellite).
The two broadband LEO constellations serve many markets and a third is coming soon. These depend on users with multi-beam antennas to assure a continuous connection to an available spacecraft. The idea behind these systems dates to 1998 when Bill Gates and others backed an early version called Teledesic. The proposed 288 satellite constellation was put out for bids and Motorola was selected. They had relevant experience with Iridium, the LEO narrowband constellation circa 1998 still serving handheld satphones and aircraft today. The timing was not right for Teledesic because the Internet had not yet reached critical mass. Also, the price tag put on it by Motorola exceeded the planned budget by a substantial factor. Thus, 2000 wasn’t time for LEO broadband even with the support it had at the time.
Around 2020, the story appeared to be much different because of these factors: the Internet Protocol standard became supreme, broadband tiering points were available throughout the globe, launch and manufacturing costs were substantially lower due to volume and efficiency, and an appropriate user antenna at the right price point became available. I also note that financing such ventures requires very deep pockets and the will to go forward without a proven business model.
Victor Hugo observed: “Nothing else in the world…not all the armies…is so powerful as an idea whose time has come.” This is a principle like the Cloud Chamber – conceive a formidable idea before it is seen by others. Taking this a step further, the picture of the “Big Blue Marble” (Apollo 17, December 7, 1972), gained support for many NASA projects and accomplishments. Today, we have the first all-woman crew aboard New Shepard. This could usher in an age of space travel for the non-professional. But, is this style or is this reality? There are no futurists today who can address these questions, so we’re left to do this ourselves.
Are we on the verge of a new space age so we go where no one has gone before? Gey rekon (go figure).
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Bruce Elbert is the Founder and President of Application Technology Strategy LLC.(www.applicationstrategy.com) He is a satellite industry expert, communications engineer, project leader and consultant with over 50 years experience in communications and space-based systems in the public and private sectors. Areas of expertise include space segment design and operation in all orbit domains, systems architecture and engineering, ground segment systems engineering, development and operation, overall system performance improvement, and organizational development. He can be reached at: bruce@applicationstrategy.com
