Its NAB time again, and as you read this many of us in the industry will be gearing up for that lovely confab in the city of lost wages. I have one recommendation: check out satellite HD, MPEG-4, transcoding, and DVB-S2 products.
We’ve seen dramatic increases in consumer HDTV set sales over the past two years. With the DTV transition and analog over-the-air shut-off deadline of February 2009 looming, it’s hard not to expect we’ll see an upsurge in sales this year. Consumer demand for HD programming is driving channel growth, and as a result, demand for HD satellite capacity.
According to the National Cable & Telecommunications Association (NCTA) the number of national cable program services grew by 41 new services in 2005 and 34 units in 2006. At two HD networks per C-band transponder, that’s roughly “one-and-a-half satellites” worth of new bandwidth demand in the market in two years. One satellite operator says ‘we only see new channel growth for HD”. Says my friend the executive “ SD content goes to VOD on cable”.
At issue is this — will growth in demand for capacity for HD be offset by efficiencies from improved compression and modulation? Or worse, will the compression gains shrink demand? I believe history provides the best insight and looking at the conversion from analog to digital here in the U.S, or as a global trend in the satellite market, bandwidth efficiency gains from digital compression have correlated with net growth in new services, applications and capacity demand and supply.
You may have heard that using MPEG-4 compression can cut video bandwidth by 40-60% compared to MPEG2, and higher-order modulation technology can add 30% or more in savings. The result is you can more than double the efficiency of satellite space without sacrificing quality. For example, now you can load four to five HD channels in a transponder whereas you could fit just two with MPEG-2.
The MPEG-4/AVC and DVB-S2 gains create exciting new opportunities for satellite broadcast networks to add new program streams on existing transponder space — both from in-house programming as well as third-party programmers.
For example, I have shown clients how they could either save millions in transponder leases, or more importantly, free up capacity to launch a slew of new MPEG-4 channels by investing in MPEG-4 and DVB-S2 replacement gear. With some marketing help, programmers can even gain revenue by sub-leasing their excess capacity. Gains from off-selling unused bandwidth can help speed the payback on capex for new MPEG-4/DVB-S2 gear and receivers in a satellite network.
So with all the demand for HD, the potential to save up to 75% in transponder capacity, why isn’t everyone going MPEG-4/DVB this instant? The lack of available and affordable MPEG-4-to-MPEG-2 “transcoders” has been one obstacle holding back MPEG-4. Without the transcoders, MPEG-4 satellite-fed signals can’t cost-effectively distribute to today’s MPEG-2 Digital Cable headends, or DTV broadcast stations for that matter.But help is on the way. Motorola’s DSR-6000 and Scientific Atlanta’s D9858 receivers let programmers distribute high-definition content in MPEG-4, and then let operators to convert that for their existing MPEG-2-based set-top boxes. As these products, and possibly similar products from other manufacturers ship and deploy later this year, my view is we’ll see new networks and conversions of existing satellite cable feeds going up in MPEG-4. And with scheduled launches for later this year including two new Intelsat spacecraft plus one satelliteeach from SES Americom and Telesat respectively, we can look forward to a healthy shot of new and replacement transponder capacity in the market.
